A very brief summary of 6th IPCC report
Intro #
This is an excerpt from a tiny newsletter that I used to send to friends when I was intensely learning about climate change. In this issue, I wrote an extremely brief summary of 6th IPCC report, which had just been released at the time of writing.
Papers #
"In-depth Q&A: The IPCC’s sixth assessment on how to tackle climate change" by Carbon Brief - the IPCC published its newest report on the science of stopping climate change. The actual thing is 3000 pages, so I read a summary from Carbon Brief. Here's a summary of the summary:
- We emit more CO2 than ever. Emissions are still growing at ~1.5%/year
- Under current policy, we're looking at a warming of 2.2-3 deg. C
- To stop warming at 1.5 deg. C, we need to peak emissions by 2025, and reduce them by 50% by 2030 (15% for 2 deg. C)
- CO2 removal will be necessary to keep warming below 1.5, unless we alter energy demand. This involves behavioural change, which is not featured in current climate models
- Behavioural change could slash emissions by 40-70%. The most impactful thing individuals can do is transition to a plant-based diet, reduce food waste, and travel less
- The most important thing to do on the supply side is energy transition, but that's hindered by capital already committed to fossil fuel infrastructure
- Utilising existing fossil fuel energy infrastructure till its end of life will by itself push us over 1.5. Stopping global warming will result in $4tn of stranded fossil fuel assets
- Land use is the second largest source of emissions after energy production, but also the most promising solution. Stopping deforestation and moving to regenerative agriculture would not only stop 22% of emissions, but also capture around a third of what we emit
- Even if we manage to make direct air capture technologies work, 90% of carbon will be removed by nature-based solutions
- Long-distance transport and certain industrial products (e.g. cement) will be the hardest areas to decarbonise, with many technological advancements required
- 90% of global emissions are currently covered by reduction targets, we just need to execute on them
- Achieving 1.5 deg. C warming would cost us around $2.7tn/year until 2050. Global GDP in 2050 would be ~3% lower compared to a scenario without climate polcy, a decrease in growth of ~0.03%/year
- Some studies claim that net financial impact of climate action would be positive, even without accounting for externalities such as cleaner air. This is definitely true for some climate-friendly solutions such as wind power or electric vehicles, which are already cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives
- Of course we're not currently allocating nearly enough funds to make any of the above happen
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